With the US presidential election just around the corner, governments, industries, and communities around the world are watching closely and speculating on who will win and what that might mean for the effect it has on their livelihood. This blog post will look specifically at what a Democratic or Republican win could mean for international students in the US, both those already there and those who are aiming to enter a program in 2025.
Current Immigration Trends
While broader immigration policy and trends have been a constant hot-button item in the past decade and are once again under a microscope this year, let’s focus on those seeking to earn a degree in America and then remain in the country after to continue their careers. In terms of interest in studying in the US and acquiring a coveted H-1B visa – most often associated with STEM-designated university and graduate programs – “demand for H-1B visa numbers has outstripped the supply in recent years, and the cap has been reached before the year ends.”
Currently, there is a cap of 85,000 new H-1B visas available each year and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the country will require a million more STEM workers in 2030 than were needed a decade earlier. From an economic impact perspective, international students contribute US$40.1 billion to the US, according to Pie News. These numbers strongly suggest that it would be in the new administration’s best interest to preserve or even expand the valuable H-1B program, regardless of who comes to power.
How International Students Feel About the Election
For current international students and those applying this year, H-1B visa status is just one of several factors that might impact their interest in studying in the US. Ability to stay in the US after their studies, quality of life, safety, value for money, and work opportunities are also among the deciding factors for these students and applicants. The QS Country Perceptions Survey 2024 found that 52% of international students perceive the US as offering good work opportunities, although it is also deemed to be expensive by 44% of respondents.
Among those applying this season, a survey conducted by IDP Education found that 54% of prospective international students said that the upcoming presidential election in the US will not impact their decision to study in the country. However, the QS study mentioned above found more dissenting opinions on the topic.
A win for Democrat Kamala Harris makes the US significantly more appealing to many prospective students, showing that 30-40% of students would be more likely to consider the US in all the markets surveyed. However, a Republican win that would put Donald Trump back in the White House is viewed considerably more negatively by applicants from Africa & the Middle East, Latin America, and, especially, Western Europe.
How Might a Second Trump Presidency Impact International Students?
During the first Trump presidency, the denial rate for H-1B visas reached an all-time high of 24 percent in 2018 and remained at 21 percent in 2019. However, it fell back to 2 percent in 2022 after courts found his administration’s handling of these visas to be unlawful, resulting in a legal settlement. Since the restrictions were lifted, the growth of foreign-born workers in the labor force has helped propel the U.S. to a healthy economic recovery without taking jobs from native-born workers.
Contrary to his track record, in June 2024 Trump said, “…you graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in this country.” Of course, this statement goes well beyond securing visas, but boldly offers the permanent residency of a green card to those international students who graduate in the US. It’s worth noting that immediately following this quote, Trump staffers threw water on the idea.
Also contrary to that strong statement from June, “Project 2025, a policy outline drafted largely by former Trump appointees and staffers, calls for eliminating the lowest wage levels eligible to people applying for H-1B visas—an action that would result in “excluding most foreign-born graduates from these job opportunities,” according to the Niskanen Center, a pro-immigration think tank” (Scientific American). Going further, a second Trump administration would most likely once again eliminate the granting of visas to the Muslim population. Policies enabling Chinese students to obtain visas is another question mark.
How Might a Harris Presidency Impact International Students?
Thus far, to guess what Kamala Harris might do for international students, we have to read between the lines of more general statements about immigration and consider a couple of past actions.
The Biden-Harris White House boasted about expanding the STEM visa program, announcing that 22 new fields of study included in the STEM Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, as well as adding an “Early Career STEM Research Initiative,” to facilitate non-immigrant BridgeUSA exchange visitors coming to the US to engage in STEM research through research, training, or educational exchange visitor programs with host organizations.
In November 2019, Harris said that she was in favor of lifting the per-country ceiling on employment-based green cards, asserting that around 95% of those who are in line for green cards are from China, India, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Her campaign added that as president, she will clear the backlogs in the family visa category as part of her plan for a fair immigration system.
Overall, Kamala Harris has advocated for inclusive immigration policies and it seems nearly certain that she would maintain current H-1B policies and it’s possible she could expand the program, which a big group of VCs supporting her are lobbying for.
Source: VCs for Kamala
Conclusion
While the Harris campaign remains suggestive but opaque about its position on inclusive immigration, it’s widely expected that a second Trump administration would add new restrictions on H-1B visas given that the administration was in the process of challenging the legal actions they faced when limiting H-1B visa approvals when his first tenure ended.
Despite that many prospective international students have let it be known that who wins this election will have an impact on their decision whether to study in America, it does appear that enough applicants see studying in the US as a good opportunity and won’t be deterred by either candidate.